Double-Dip Recession? It’s Why Some Buyers Are Still on the Sidelines…

Waiting out the Market.

Bottom of the market? Economic recovery? That’s not how a growing number of potential home buyers are assessing the current real estate market right now. Despite many indicators that have pointed toward a gradual recovery in 2010, there’s a contrary view that’s starting to gain some footing, and it’s making these buyers and real estate investors nervous: Double-Dip Recession.

What is a Double-Dip Recession?

Investopedia defines a double-dip recession as follows:

“When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.”

While nobody is standing up and saying that we’re heading back into a recession, the news this past week certainly raised questions about the validity of our current “recovery”, as this article from CNBC discusses: Double-Dip Recession Fears Creep Back into the Market. For some home buyers, this specter is enough to keep them on the sidelines, even despite record-low interest rates. Here’s why… … Continue Reading

(Almost) Nothing for Sale in the Flat-Lands of San Carlos…

It’s no secret that the San Carlos real estate market is being effectively strangled by the lack of inventory right now.  There are simply way more buyers looking in San Carlos than there are available homes for sale, and this continuing disparity is frustrating for these buyers who have checkbooks in hand, loan pre-approval in their pockets, and ready to buy just about anything that comes on the market.

At the time of this post, there are only 24 single family homes for sale in all of San Carlos;  but that’s only part of the story.   Of those 24 homes for sale, only 3 of these listings (or 1.8%) reside in the three Realtor zones that we generally refer to as the flat-lands of San Carlos!  There are two listings in Howard Park, one listing in White Oaks, and no listings in Clearfield park.   See the map below for a rough outline of this area:

The Flats

View San Carlos Flatlands in a larger map

The part of San Carlos the resides in the “flats” is high on the priority list for many buyers who are looking to make San Carlos their new home.  The proximity to downtown and the desire to have a flat yard are the primary reasons, and living within the White Oaks School boundaries also remains a big draw to that particular neighborhood.

But for now, buyers are forced to be patient and wait for something to come on the market.  They also know that when a well priced home in good condition comes up in this area, competition will be fierce just as it was at the end of 2009.  Multiple offers won’t be going away anytime soon, especially if this imbalance remains.

High Demand, Low Inventory Kick Off the New Year in San Carlos.

What a difference a year makes.

If you were to take a snapshot real estate market in San Carlos at this time in January 2009 and compare it to right now, you wouldn’t believe you were talking about the same month.    One year ago, we came out of the holidays in a serious funk.   After witnessing a precipitous drop in the stock market and the utter collapse of the credit market, buyers were in no mood to buy homes.  Open houses were sparsely attended, and buyer activity was virtually nonexistent.

And it showed in the numbers, too.   In January of 2009, the inventory of homes for sale in San Carlos swelled to 71!  But when you look at the number of homes that closed escrow in January ‘09 (5) and  February ‘09 (11), it’s evident that not many of these 71 homes found new buyers.   As I discussed in a recent podcast, it wasn’t until April-May of 2009 that the real estate market in San Carlos finally found its footing.

A different kind of January.

Fast forward to today, and it’s a night-and-day difference.    There are currently only 26 listings in all of San Carlos, and buyers are flocking to open houses in droves — regardless of the price range.  … Continue Reading

The White Oaks Blog Reloaded…

First of all, Happy New Year…  Welcome to the double-play of a brand new year and decade!

And what better way to mark this momentous occasion here at the White Oaks Blog than with (another) redesign of the site.  Yes, I did it again!  Based on feedback I received over the past six months,   readers seem to prefer the “traditional” website layout with the blog posts on one side and the sidebar content on the other.   This is understandable, but the reason I originally switched away from this traditional blog layout was that I had little control over where certain blog posts were placed.

A flaw of typical blogs is their chronological nature –  articles get pushed down the “stack” as new content is written, soon to be lost forever as they’re pushed off the first page.   But there are certain posts that should be kept at the top because they’re relevant and deserve focus and exposure for an extended period of time.   The recent discussion on Measure U is a prime example of this.  Some of the poll topics fit this bill too.

Well, this new layout accomplishes both — and does it really well.  Here are some of the key features: … Continue Reading

San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: November ‘09.

The late-season real estate rally continued in November, with impressive sales figures that easily beat the same month in 2008.   In fact, for the third straight month, unit sales in San Carlos have exceeded the respective month in 2008.   Note that the average and median prices were lower, though, which simply reflects the fact that starter homes in the sub-$1M segment continue to account for most of the sales.

From all indications, it looks like December ‘09 will also exceed unit sales figures in 12/08.    Will this rally continue?   I’ll have more on that topic in an upcoming podcast…

Here’s the story:
… Continue Reading

San Carlos Real Estate Report Card: October ‘09.

If you’re looking for signs that the real estate market in San Carlos is gaining strength, then October gave us a few strong clues.   Consider the following:

1. Unit Sales:  October ‘09 unit sales jumped 67% from the previous month (September ‘09) and were almost 9% higher than the October of 2008.
2. Price Stabilization:  Average sales price rose 1.8% from September ‘09, and was less than 1% below October ‘08.
3. Continued Growth:  November ‘09 is on track to easily exceed November ‘08 figures (see below for more details.)

These statistics indicate that October was probably the strongest month of the entire year in San Carlos, not necessarily in terms of absolute unit volume or total dollars, but definitely in terms of relative strength.     In other words, we finally seem to be breaking this year-long trend of falling well below the respective 2008 sales figures.   And early indications show that this strong trend will continue, at least for the next couple of months.

Here’s the story:
… Continue Reading

Breaking News: Higher Conforming Loan Limit to be Extended Through 2010.

News is spreading today that both houses of Congress have passed a resolution which will keep the higher conforming loan limits in place through 2010, and is now pending President Obama’s signature.  The current loan limit extension was set to expire at the end of this year.    If this comes to pass, this will be great news for home buyers in higher-priced regions such as the San Francisco Bay Area, since it will keep the conforming loan limit at $729,950.

Since the loan limit was temporarily increased in 2008, it has easily become the most popular loan written by the major lenders in this area, even for properties selling north of $1M.  As I have stated numerous times in this blog, I believe it has been the most effective stimulus act that has been put in place, by far.  Here’s a post with some additional details:

Conforming Loan Limits Extended Through 2010

This is extremely good news for buyers and sellers alike, and should serve to keep the current market momentum going into the new year.

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San Carlos renters: Beware of rental scam on Craigslist.

Craigslist has become the defacto standard for connecting people who are renting out their property with people who are looking for a place to live.  And for good reason:  It’s free, and it has phenomenal readership both here in the Bay Area and throughout the country.   Because of this, folks have almost become conditioned to look in Craigslist first when they need to find a rental property.   Sellers are finding that it’s so easy to find a boilerplate rental agreement on the internet that they don’t need a Realtor to help them rent out their property — frankly, I don’t think a Realtor adds much value in these transactions anymore.

So for quite awhile, this method of renting out property has worked incredibly well for all involved.   But like any business where there’s money being exchanged, you’re bound to find thieves and scammers, and they’ve now targeted the rental market with their latest ploy.

Here’s the scam.

Realtors use the internet extensively to advertise the properties that they have listed.  Whether it’s MLSlistings.com, Realtor.com, or even Craigslist,  all of the pictures and descriptions you need to better understand the property are right there for everyone to see.   Unfortunately, it’s ridiculously easy to copy these photos and descriptions from these websites, and scammers have devised a way to make money with this info. … Continue Reading