The White Oaks Blog

George Sigler won’t be too happy with me for writing this post.  He’s not much into publicity.  But since George doesn’t own a computer and doesn’t have much need for the internet,  I’m probably safe.  He certainly doesn’t need this site to find out what’s happening in real estate – a simple thumbs-up or thumbs-down from me on my way to work each day gives him all the information he wants to know.   But this isn’t to say that he doesn’t keep current  — he reads several newspapers each and every day, catches the news on TV, and gets the local scoop from his friends in his painting class which he drives himself to every week.  (By the way, he’s an amazing painter — what he can accomplish in just a couple of hours with a blank canvas is simply magic.)

You won’t read about George in the newspaper though, because he’s not a celebrity by today’s standards.    But in my eyes, there are few bigger than him.

You see, George is our neighbor in San Carlos.  He watches our house when we’re away on vacation, as he does for many others on the street.  He was here when we brought all three of our newborns home from the hospital many years ago.   He’s been with us through good and bad.

Oh yeah, he’s also 90 years old.   And he’s a World War II veteran.

What needed to be done…

George doesn’t brag about his service in WWII –  what he does say is pretty matter-of-fact.  This isn’t surprising — like most people of his generation, they simply did “what needed to be done” in their mind.  Whether it was donning a rifle half a world away, or a sewing needle here, everyone in this country did something to make a difference during that time.

But George does get a twinkle in his eye when he talks about his family’s contribution to the war.   You see, all of his brothers served in the war too.   And like many modest American families from the 1940’s, the War had a permanent and profound effect on the Sigler family:

One of George’s brothers came back a hero, and another brother didn’t come back at all.

The right stuff…

George’s brother Frank served on Iwo Jima, the site of one of the bloodiest battles in the history of the United States.   Frank had a pretty busy afternoon on March 14, 1945.  The following was taken verbatim from the official records of the Congressional Medal of Honor:

CITATION:  For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving with the 2d Battalion, 26th Marines, 5th Marine Division, in action against enemy Japanese forces during the e seizure of Iwo Jima in the Volcano Islands on 14 March 1945.

Voluntarily taking command of his rifle squad when the leader became a casualty, Private Sigler fearlessly led a bold charge against an enemy gun installation which had held up the advance of his company for several days and, reaching the position in advance of the others, assailed the emplacement with hand grenades and personally annihilated the entire crew.

As additional Japanese troops opened fire from concealed  tunnels and caves above, he quickly scaled the rocks leading to the attacking guns, surprised the enemy with a furious 1-man assault and, although severely wounded in the encounter, deliberately crawled back to his squad position where he steadfastly refused evacuation, persistently directing heavy machine-gun and rocket barrages on the Japanese cave entrances.

Undaunted by the merciless rain of hostile fire during the intensified action, he gallantly disregarded his own painful wounds to aid casualties, carrying 3 wounded squad members to safety behind the lines and returning to continue the battle with renewed determination until ordered to retire for medical treatment. Stouthearted and indomitable in the face of extreme peril, Private Sigler, by his alert initiative, unfaltering leadership, and daring tactics in a critical situation, effected the release of his besieged company from enemy fire and contributed essentially to its further advance against a savagely fighting enemy.

His superb valor, resolute fortitude, and heroic spirit of self-sacrifice throughout reflect the highest credit upon Private Sigler and the U.S. Naval Service.

Private Sigler died on 20 January 1995 and was buried with full military honors in Section 12, Grave 2799, of Arlington National Cemetery.

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Here’s a picture of Frank being decorated with the Congressional Medal of Honor by President Harry S Truman.

(photo courtesy of the Truman Library)

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No less of a hero, George’s brother, William C. Sigler, Private First Class, United States Marine Corps, was killed in World War II and is also buried in Arlington National Cemetery next to his brother Frank.

Who are YOUR heroes?

With all the talk this week about a certain celebrity’s unfortunate passing, the word “hero” has been tossed about quite liberally.  This got me thinking about who my heroes are.     My wife and my kids, my mom and dad… and George, and Bill, and Frank….they are all my heroes.   They have all given me something that has truly made my life better.

So as you settle in for the barbeque and the parties and the fireworks this weekend, take a second to think about who your heroes are.   And if you’re lucky enough to still have them with you, take a moment to thank them.    Because they gave you something of their own, too.

Fly our flag proudly, and have a Happy 4th of July.

CG

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June Swoon?

Not really.  There was no swoon in June, but it wasn’t a blowout month either.   Entering last month, I stated that there was the potential for 30 sales to close in June,  but it fell a little bit short at 23.   Nevertheless,  it was still easily the best sales month we’ve had so far in 2009.  That’s not bad considering where the economy is at.

The average sales prices reflect what I’ve been saying all year — the demand for homes under $1M is dominating our real estate market market this year.   In fact, of the 94 homes that sold in San Carlos so far in 2009, 63% of them sold for under $1M.   Contrast that with 2008, when 46% sold for under $1M during the same period.   The economy, interest rates, and a plethora of first-time buyer incentives have simply made this segment more attractive than the higher end.    But look for that to change a little bit as prices continue to fall and lenders like Bank of America start to roll out some attractive jumbo loan packages.

Here’s the story:

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General Trends

Here’s a graphical look at the monthly sales performance in San Carlos, dating back to last year.   See below for a more in-depth analysis.

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June 2009 Stats.

Here’s the summart from June ‘09 compared to the same month in 2008:

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YTD Sales Figures Through June ‘09

Here’s a snapshot of the unit sales to date in 2009, compared to previous years

And here’s the same data as above relative to the first half of the year…

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Looking Ahead…

The big question right how is whether the real estate market will take it’s normal summer siesta in July and August.   As you can tell from the annual graph above, October and November escrows drop precipitously every year, reflecting the sales activity during the summer months.    But this year could be different from past years — interest rates are starting to creep upwards, and most of the home-buyer incentives are due to expire at the end of the year.  There are definitely reasons to keep shopping.

There are about 27 homes that are in contract right now that could possibly close escrow in July.  If so, that would surpass June as the best month so far in 2009.   Let’s hope….

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Lights, Camera, Action….

The San Carlos Children’s Theater is an outstanding organization that has been teaching theater and fine arts to children of all ages for the past 19 years. If your child has any interest in the theater, whether it’s acting or production, be sure to check out the SCCT. It’s yet another great organization that makes San Carlos a great place to raise children.

Their latest production is a rendition of the classic “Fiddler on the Roof.”   Check out the details below, and support children’s theater in San Carlos!

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July is the month…

…but we don’t yet have an exact date.   But it’s progress.  According to an email I received today from Matteson Development Partners, the long awaited grand opening of the 1001 Laurel Street complex will take place sometime in the month of July.   They will update everyone on their email distribution list as soon as the date is nailed down.

Register for updates.

Matteson is planning a “VIP sneak peek” preview for those who have already registered online;  this preview will be held before the public grand opening.  So if you’re interested in getting in as soon as possible, be sure to register at their site:  1001 Laurel Street.

As soon as I get a definitive date on the grand opening, I’ll post it on the site. Stay tuned….

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The Three Outcomes

As a home buyer, you’ve likely made up a list of homes that you want to see.  These homes made your list because they met some or all of the preliminary criteria you put in place for your ideal home;  price, location, bedroom/bath count, school district, etc…   Since you’ve done your homework, you’ve weeded out the ones that are out of your price range, or have some sort condition that’s a show stopper for you.   So your list is already “qualified.”

You now get in the car to head out and “tour” these qualified homes.   As you exit each one of these houses, your brain will automatically file each one into one of three basic categories:

1. You like the house, and you think it’s priced well.
2. You don’t like the house, regardless of the price.
3. You like the house, but you think it’s priced too high.

The outcome of the first two scenarios if obvious — you’ll likely jump at writing an offer on the first, and you’ll never write an offer on the second.   But interestingly, many buyers miss out on that third category of homes.  Why?  Because they simply move on to the next house, assuming this one will never be a good deal…or, they decide to sit and wait for the price to drop to a point that it will be a good deal.   Neither of these choices is necessarily the best, but more on that in a bit.

The Honeymoon.

When a home hits the market in San Carlos, you’ll generally know within the first 14 days whether it “hit the mark” on pricing.  Why 14 days?  This allows time for a broker’s tour, and at least one open house weekend, and then a day or so to take offers.  I call this the “Honeymoon Period.”   Generally speaking, if a home isn’t snapped up within this period, the market has effectively spoken with its feet that something isn’t quite right with the pricing.

That’s a pretty bold statement, but I contend that the stats on this blog back it up.  Even in slow times, the demand is high enough in San Carlos that new listings have been disappearing inside of the 14-day window when they’re priced right.

The 30-day price reduction.

When a home hasn’t fetched a buyer during the honeymoon period and there’s no clear indication that one’s on the horizon, sellers start to plan for the inevitable price reduction…after all, the market has spoken, right?   And when do they normally reduce the price?  Right at the 30-day mark.  Why?  I have no idea, other than it’s a big round number.   But the “why’ isn’t important.  The fact that the market has become conditioned to expect a reduction at about the 30-day mark IS important.

And this is where the buyer’s mistake comes in.

Wait, and expect company.

Our hypothetical buyers above has now found a home that they like, but they think it’s priced too high.   So they decide to wait.  Sure enough, they were  right…the honeymoon comes and goes without an offer,  and now it’s knocking on 30-days.   Almost magically, the seller has softened up and drops the price at the 30-day mark to something that makes more sense.    Suddenly, our Category 3 home becomes a Category 1 home.  Eureka!   They’ve got the seller over the proverbial barrel.   They jump in to start the negotiation..  But what’s this?

We’ve got company…

This sure-fire negotiation strategy has now backfired, because it has become a multiple-offer situation.  Why?  Because another buyer did exactly the same thing.   They waited for the price to drop to where it should have been in the first place before starting the negotiation.   Now, any leverage they thought they had by letting the home languish on the market is gone in a flash…simply because there’s another offer to compete with.

Do your homework, drive your deal…

What should have our unlucky buyers done to avoid this?  Clearly, if a home is over-priced, there will be a mountain of data from comparable home sales to prove this fact.   A good Realtor who knows his target-market well will know that a home is over-priced almost intuitively, and can back up this “gut-feel” with solid data.

Rather than wait for the seller to make the first move, the buyer should write an offer (no verbal what if’s) based on what they truly believe the home is worth.   The more facts they can present in a non-threatening manner to back up their position, the better.   Note that this is far different than submitting a low-ball offer.   You’re not insulting the seller, because you have market data to back up your price.    With facts in hand, the worst thing that can happen is that seller says no, or counters your offer.

Or, better yet, you’ll get the house you want for the price you want….while everyone else is just waiting.

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“For First-Time Home Buyers” is a new category on the site that’s a resource for first-time home buyers in San Carlos, and for those who have general real estate questions.

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Click Away

One of the really cool things about blog analysis software is that it gives the author a good idea where people are clicking on the blog, which essentially tells the writer what the readers are finding most interesting and relevant. (Important note: I can’t tell who is clicking, just where…so your privacy is totally safe.) I spent some time this weekend analyzing how people use this site, and what they tend to read the most. The answer was very clear:

Home Sales Data

The most clicked links on this site (by far) have to do with home sales data. There’s a shocker – it is a real estate blog, after all. Whether it’s homes for sale in San Carlos, pending sales, or homes that have already sold, readers want real data on what’s happening in the San Carlos real estate market, and this information is usually not that easy to find. Until now…

New Buttons

While I haven’t changed the background (a.k.a. theme) of this blog in the past 2 years, I have changed the structure quite a bit. It’s akin to putting new buttons on an old coat — I simply haven’t found a better “coat” for this site, so I’ll continue to change the buttons to make it better.  And here are three new ones that you should know about: (go ahead and click one of them)

How to use ‘em…

You’ll find these three buttons conveniently located at the top of the site, right in the middle.   The subject content is pretty self-explanatory, but there’s a lot more information here than meets the eye.  Let’s look at an example:

If you simply click on the “Homes Sold” button at the top, it will show you ALL of the homes that have sold in San Carlos over the past 6 months — in a single click.  Once you’re in there, you can sort by price or by square footage.  Pretty cool, eh?

But let’s say you’re interested in homes that sold only in White Oaks, or just homes that sold for less than $1M?    Got you covered.   If you move your cursor over the “Homes Sold” button at the top of the blog (not the one in this example,) you’ll see a whole array of options magically appear below the button…including “Homes Sold in White Oaks” and “Homes Sold in San Carlos: <$1M” just to name a few.   Simply move your cursor down, and it’s there — all in a single click.

The same principle works with the “Homes for Sale in San Carlos” and “Pending Sales” buttons.   And the data is pulled from a live feed, so it’s always current.   So go ahead and try them out, and let me know what you think.  If there’s a different way that you want the data sliced up, just let me know.

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San Carlos Inventory Analysis

There was a bit of a change in the mix this week — for many weeks now, homes in the sub-$1M sector have made dominated the number homes for sale in San Carlos.  This week, the $1M-$1.5M segment picked up 4 new listings and edged into the lead.  It will be interesting to see how many of these remain in that range when they do sell.  That should give us a good indication of the relative health of the real estate market in San Carlos.

Here’s a snapshot of the San Carlos market, as of 6/27.  The previous week’s stats are in parentheses:

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San Carlos Home Sales

Below are homes that sold this past week in San Carlos. Click on the respective addresses to get all the details.

2048 Alma St, San Carlos

2048 Alma Street

• Pictured Above — Sale Price: $1,739,500 Original List Price: $1,899,950.  Difference: $160,450 (8.4%) below original list. DOM: 221 Days under current MLS # 80909572. This was a really nice home on one of San Carlos’ premier streets.   Listed by Donna Colangelo of Intero Real Estate Services.

205 Lynton Avenue

• Sale Price: $999,777.  Original List Price: $1,275,000.  Difference: $275,223 (21.6%) below original list. DOM: 92 Days under current MLS # 80913872. Listed by Arnoldo Arreola of RE/MAX Star Properties.

177 Barford Avenue

• Sale Price: $825,000.  Original List Price: $849,000.  Difference: $24,000 (2.8%) below original list. DOM: 31 Days under current MLS # 80913872. This ultimately sold as an REO, but it originally listed back in April ‘08 at $1,198,000.  Listed by Kendra Wall of Vanguard Properties.

984 Alameda de las Pulgas

• Sale Price: $810,000.  Original List Price: $879,500.  Difference: $69,500 (7.9%) below original list. DOM: 36 Days under current MLS # 80921577. Listed by Michelle Despres of SC Properties.

2048 Brittan Avenue

• Sale Price: $760,000.  Original List Price: $789,000.  Difference: $29,000 (3.7%) below original list. DOM: 31 Days under current MLS # 80921491. Listed by Mehrandokht Abolmoluki of Coldwell Banker.

(Click this button to see all of the homes that have sold in San Carlos in the past 3 months.)

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Homes Pending Sale in San Carlos

Here’s a noteworthy pending sale from this week…

• 849 Elm Street went pending after only 1 day on the market

(Click this button to see all the homes that are Pending Sale in San Carlos.)

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New Listings in San Carlos

Below are the new listings that hit the market this past week in San Carlos. Click on the respective addresses to get all the details.  (Note:  If  a generic map comes up instead of a property profile, it likely means that particular home  is already Pending Sale.  Click the link in the “Homes Pending Sale” section to check.)

46 Elston Court, San Carlos

46 Elston Court

• Pictured Above:  $1,288,888 — 3BR/ 2.5BA, 1,826 sq ft on a 8,000 square foot lot.    MLS# 80931039, listed by Bente Palouda of Keller-Williams Cupertino.

2725 Clifford Avenue

• $1,268,000 — 3BR/ 2.5BA, 2,040 sq ft on a 10,400 square foot lot.    MLS# 80931039, listed by David Young of Coldwell Banker.

19 Camborne Avenue

• $1,245,950 — 4BR/ 2.5BA, 2,880 sq ft on a 14,200 square foot lot.    MLS# 80930035, listed by Donna Colangelo of Intero Real Estate Services.

2424 Melendy Drive

• $1,089,000 — 3BR/ 2BA, 1,870 sq ft on a 10,788 square foot lot.    MLS# 80930057, listed by Jeffrey Holley of CNA Equity Group.

938 Lupin Way

• $998,938 — 3BR/ 2BA, 1,950 sq ft on a 5,600 square foot lot.    MLS# 80930065, listed by Sue Walsh of Cashin Company.

3184 Brittan Avenue

• $975,000 – 4BR/ 2.5BA, 2,600 sq ft on a 14,204 square foot lot.    MLS# 80930042, listed by Mary Duvall of Coldwell Banker.

201 Molton Avenue

• $939,000 – 3BR/ 2BA, 1,600 sq ft on a 6,120 square foot lot.    MLS# 80931049, listed by David Young of Coldwell Banker.

849 Elm Street

• $649,000 – 3BR/ 1.5BA, 1,580 sq ft on a 7,200 square foot lot.    MLS# 80930034, listed by Justine Ford of RE/MAX Today.  This home is already pending sale after one day on the market.

(Click this button to see ALL of the homes currently for sale in San Carlos.)

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(The “San Carlos Week in Review” series is a summary of new listings and home sales in San Carlos for the prior week, and an occasional podcast mixed in to keep things lively. Between the two, you should get a great idea of what happened last week in San Carlos real estate.)

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Former San Carlos Superintendent finds a new place.

It was reported in yesterday’s Redding.com Record Searchlight that former San Carlos Superintendent Steve Mitrovich has been hired to lead the Pacheco Union School District in Shasta County.     I always thought very highly of the job Mr. Mitrovich did while he was in San Carlos.   He guided the district through some pretty tough times, with the contentious teacher’s contract a few years ago, and most recently with the passage of Measure B.

But what impressed me the most about Mr. Mitrovich was that he always made the effort to attend as many of the school functions as he could.   You could count on seeing him on the first of school (at ALL of the campuses) and he was usually at the awards ceremonies, band concerts, etc…  Probably not required in his job description, but he certainly struck me as a person who was very dedicated to his job.

Best of luck!

This is a good situation for all parties involved up north.   The Pacheco School District picks up a very capable leader, and Mr. Mitrovich is much closer to his home in Shasta County.   Our loss is their gain.   All the best to Steve Mitrovich, and thanks again for all you did for the San Carlos School District.

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Surprise Recognition.

I got a nice little surprise this morning while going through my emails —   The White Oaks Blog was just named one of the Best Real Estate Blogs in the San Francisco Area by Relocation.com, a leading publication that connects consumers who are moving with professionals who can best service their needs.    The editors of Relocation.com evaluated blogs throughout the Bay Area on such criteria as market data, explanatory articles about real estate, and local flavor and chose 7 blogs to share this honor.

Here’s the write-up on their site, as well as a press release from IT News Online:

Relocation.com:  The Best Real Estate Blogs in San Francisco

IT News Online Press Release

In great company…

This was really a surprise and quite an honor because there are so many good real estate blogs that cover the bay area right now.   The White Oaks Blog is humbled to share this honor with 6 other outstanding RE Blogs:

• The Front Steps :  Covering San Francisco real estate, created by Alexander Clark
• The Marin Real Estate Guide, by Ginger Wilcox.
• Absolutely Foster City Blog, (one of my favorite blogs) created by my colleague Jim Minkey.
• Living Well in San Mateo, from Raymond Stoklosa
• The San Mateo Real Estate Blog, by Vicki Moore
• The Marin Real Estate Blog, by Mark Lomas

Thank YOU.

Thanks to Relocation.com for the recognition and the nice write-up.  But a bigger thanks goes to all the readers of the White Oaks Blog.   Your continued readership, helpful suggestions, and overall encouragement were the real reasons behind this recognition.    The site is what it is because of you.

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Cool Treat, Cooler Idea…

Harmony Yogurt is once again stepping to the plate to help San Carlos Parks.   This weekend, June 27th and 28th,  Harmony will donate $1 from every froyo they sell to the Burton Park Playground Fund.  This fund is critical to support playground maintenance and operations at the park, especially now that budgets are being drastically cut.

This isn’t the first time that Harmony has made such a generous gesture, and it’s a great example for other San Carlos businesses to follow.    Town Restaurant is another San Carlos family-owned business that is always doing fantastic things for our schools and our community too.   So be sure to drop by Harmony this weekend, and treat your park while you’re treating yourself!

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